decision support

This is just a note that I'm interested in decision support tools, aggregating some things I've heard..

The oldest idea I've heard is creating a matrix where each row is an option, and each column is a dimension along which the options can vary.

Another idea I've heard is creating a kind of decision tree, where the top node may be something like "decide to migrate to node.js", and beneath that would be arguments, each labeled "pro" or "con", and recursively each argument would also have arguments beneath it, supporting or rejecting it, and so on.

Another idea I've heard is helping people calculate probabilities by helping them break down the probability into parts, and recursively assessing the probability of the parts. For instance, the top node might be "what is the probability that Obama will win", and that might be broken down into smaller events like "what is the probability that Florida will go for Obama" and X and Y...

Anyway, I like the idea of trying to automate/facilitate/enhance "reason", especially in a group. We usually think of group decisions with a bit of cynicism — a decision by committee — but with tools, perhaps group decisions could actually be better than a high paid executive.

No comments:

Post a Comment